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Networks of Nations: The Evolution, Structure, and Impact of International Networks, 1816-2001 (Structural Analysis in the Social Sciences) ReviewIn this difficult but rewarding work Maoz uses the descriptive mathematics of social network analysis (SNA) to analyze political alliances between nations and correlates a variety of measurements such as regime stability, network density, trade, amount of multilateral interaction, prestige and democratic practice to the likelihood of conflict. Maoz, who splits his time between teaching at the University of California (Davis) and the Interdisciplinary Centre Herzilya Israel, was a student of Robert Axelrod, who was also a major influence on my own thinking.
A possible criticism of the book is that the datasets used in this kind of study are inaccurate and incomplete. Maoz admits as much and recommends further effort, yet dismisses missing figures as likely insignificant. I agree - if the numbers aren't readily available in most cases they were either too low to be influential. In weather models the analysis of stable scenarios using chaos theory shows that one get similar results with small or moderate perturbations in the underlying numbers whereas unstable systems demonstrate their instability with large differences emerging from small differences - one should expect similar results here. A key lesson that I would draw from the book is that a large diversity relationships between nations on a variety of fronts act to dampen conflict and promote peace. Democratic nations are less likely to engage in armed conflict because of the higher value of other interactions such as trade, cultural exchange and joint endeavors.Dictatorships and oligarchies are shown by Maoz to have both fewer external connections and inputs. Therefore they can more easily dismiss the attributed values of non-State actors raising the relative benefit of military conflict. Calls for boycotts and severing relationships result in simplification of the array of values deemed relevant, increasing the likelihood of war, whereas NGO, IGO and business, cultural and sport connections add value (but only when taken into account, ) and reduce overall aggression.
Chapter Summaries:
Ch 1: Overview of terminology used and the program of the book. The relevance of SNA as a tool is justified.
Ch 2: A good introduction to the mathematics used and what is being measured.
Ch 3: The density and connectedness of the network increases exponentially between 1816 and 2001. Isolation decreases. Maoz bolsters the case that global behaviour can be assessed from data reflected in 2-way relationships (dyads). The concept of SRGs (Security Reference Groups - opposing nations) as fundamental understanding patterns of alliance. My thought here is that this is an approximation, that will have to do for now.
Ch 4: Security EgoNets - essentially the network as viewed from an individual node. What's interesting here is that the formation of SRGs and Egonets appear to affect each other.Democratic egonets try to maximize their relationships beyond what is needed for defense.Non-democratic egonets have less connectedness - this may be due to a lack of trust between parties.
Ch 5: A brilliant critique of modern schools of thought such as Marxism, "Realism" (Mearsheimer, Waltz et al), "Liberalism" (Keohane, Russet, Maoz), and Constructivism/Culturalism (Huntington et al) and how Maoz's Networked International Politics Theory (NIPT) can act as a unified approach for testing theory through descriptive measures. There's a nice discussion of Alexander Wendt's characterization of international cultures as Hobbesian (nations act purely out of self interest/the Realist approach), Lockean (nations seek independence but cherish interdependence - Liberalism) or Kantian (highly connected). Thus we see that each school of thought may be correct depending on the current evolution and connectedness of the network.
Ch 6: Testing NIPT: Maoz takes the reader through a sample analysis using his methodology.
Ch 7: Maoz analyzes the effect of individual factors such as prestige, status and regime stability. There is an interesting result that high status does not have a major effect on results such as UN General Assembly voting. Also a large difference between as state's prestige (number of nations choosing to have connections with X) and status (measurement of centrality in a network) is a predictor of involvement conflict.
Ch 8: Examines the claim that democracies rarely go to war with each other. Partially this is explained by the fact that democracies are relatively rare. Degree of democratization is suggested as a sliding scale.Maoz's model confirms a correlation.
Ch 9: Maoz derives measurements of interdependency within a network. The results largely support a Liberal view of the world as opposed to a Realist view.
Ch 10: Evolution and Change in World Networks. I found this to be a tough chapter with lots of little results. The challenge here is to present observations that might better be shown as animations than as charts and text. I kept thinking of Hans Rosling's presentation at TED and how it might be applied.
Ch 11: How Networks Interact examines spillover effects from one subnet to another, and measurement of degree of polarization.
Ch 12: Summary of NIPT. I recommend reading it while in the middle of the book to regain focus when the going gets heavy.In addition to an interest in political theory the reader should also have a background in applied statistical measurements and matrix manipulation. Approximately 30% of the book is about mathematical modeling and Roger Penrose's warning that each equation in a book reduces readership in half will apply. To implement his models Maoz has developed his own software Maoznet, available along with datasets from his web site. He also recommends several books on learning SNA techniques. The book by Knoke and Yang looks promising. There's another book by Schneiderman that I might try as well, and it has the advantage of being more hands on.
Keep in mind that NIPT is both new and a work in progress. The analysis paradigm is IMHO quite promising, not only in world politics but there are possibilities in other domains such as modeling business relationships.
I liked the book and found it exciting. If I were a student at UC Davis or in Heryzliya Israel I would take his course in International Relations in a flash. The downside is that because of the use of math and statistics not all readers will find it approachable.
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